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Steve Christie reviews The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a new world by Alan Greenspan
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Custom Article Title: The battle of the bulge
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Competition, free enterprise and globalisation are regularly criticised today for a range of sins. A counterbalance to such criticism, Alan Greenspan’s view is that continuing the current free-market approach to managing economies is the only way to ensure prosperity in ‘The Age of Turbulence’ in which we live.

Greenspan, now in his eighty-second year, has been a significant participant in, and student of, the global economy for the past sixty years. Based on that experience and the positions he has held, with arguably unique access to information and the best economic minds, his clear view is that the continuous rise in prosperity and living standards in the United States and globally is a direct result of competition, free enterprise and flexible economies, with minimum government interference.

Book 1 Title: The Age of Turbulence
Book 1 Subtitle: Adventures in a new world
Book Author: Alan Greenspan
Book 1 Biblio: Allen Lane, $59.95 hb, 531 pp
Book 1 Author Type: Author
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In the first half of the book, Greenspan charts his path from the son of a small-time stockbroker in New York, his days at New York University and Columbia, his career in consulting and as a company director, to his gradual rise through the ranks of economic advisers to American government. Greenspan provides an enjoyable insight into his life, how he came to be a trusted adviser to various presidents and then, finally, how he became chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States. In the second half, Greenspan goes on to discuss the current state of the world, from an economic and public policy perspective, and where he thinks things might be headed.

Greenspan became most prominent during the 1990s and early 2000s, a decade and a half of robust stock markets and rising global prosperity. In a less wealth-obsessed era, a mere economist may not have so captured public attention. Instead, during that period the media and market watchers in the United States and around the world hung on every word Greenspan uttered, looking for clues as to his thinking on which way the American economy was headed and the possible future direction of interest rates. Accordingly, it is enlightening to know what Greenspan was actually thinking and how he reached his decisions. Clearly, Greenspan found it all quite amusing: he tells a funny tale of how CNBC sought to infer whether good news or bad news was coming based on the size of the bulge in his briefcase, on the assumption that bad news required more supporting documents. (The bulge was simply the result of a packed lunch.)

As a follower of markets for the past fifteen years, this reviewer was particularly interested in the workings of the ‘Fed’ and what was really going on during some very interesting times. Greenspan’s calmness of mind during 9/11 and the factors he considered before taking action to ensure minimum disruption to the American economy, and hence the global economy, are revealing.

People new to markets and economics are often surprised by the extent to which ‘the experts’ muddle along, making decisions as best they can based on incomplete information and knowledge. This book makes it clear that theories change and that it is not always obvious how to manage an economy in an ever more complex world. At times Greenspan had real doubts and concerns, which he kept hidden from the public. However, his view is that minimising government interference, and allowing participants in markets and economies to ‘get on with it’, is the only unassailable economic truth. To support his claim, Greenspan sets out in enlightening detail the collapse of Soviet Russia and the Eastern Block, as well as the successful embrace of capitalism by China, as well as his own learning after sixty years of study and observation.

Greenspan’s view is hardly surprising: he is a self-proclaimed admirer of Ayn Rand, and her philosophy is evident throughout this book. Greenspan appears to have been in awe of Rand, whom he considered a friend and one of his ‘greatest teachers’.

However, Greenspan is sufficiently insightful and balanced to recognise that free markets, like life, are not always easy: he admits that he does not always enjoy competition and that when he ran his consultancy firm, Town-send-Greenspan, he never thought kindly of competitors who tried to win over his clients. At the same time, his knowledge and experience buttress his view that the only way to raise living standards is by embracing a capitalist system, which has at its heart robust and sometimes confronting competition, the rule of law, property rights and freedom from untoward government interference.

Looking forward, Greenspan sees a world heavily influenced by energy, changes in global demographics, a continuation of the rise of the developing world, and the ongoing positive benefits of technology and the liberalisation of trade. It is the impact of these trends and of the rapid change around the globe that gives the book its title. Ironically, then, one criticism of the book is that this forward-looking content arguably adds little to current popular views, as expressed in books such as Thomas Friedman’s The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century (2005), referenced by Greenspan, or the far more succinct and rigorous Our Brave New World (2005), by Charles Gave and the team at GaveKal Research. Still, it is interesting to have Greenspan’s views on these trends.

For a self-declared Republican, Greenspan appears balanced in his views of the numerous presidents with whom he has dealt. His involvement in public life began in 1967, during Richard Nixon’s second presidential campaign. Although Greenspan admired Nixon’s intellect, his mood swings ‘disturbed’ him. Apart from his clear admiration for Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan, Greenspan strongly admires Bill Clinton for his intellect, fiscal responsibility, his ability to grasp economic matters and, consequently, his respect for the independence of the Fed. Greenspan has understanding words for Jimmy Carter. In stark contrast, his lack of praise for George Bush Snr is surprising; he describes the Fed’s relationship with Bush Snr as ‘terrible’. Similarly, his disappointment with the current President Bush’s lack of fiscal discipline is revealing.

Greenspan acknowledges that one of the big issues facing the world today is growing income inequality, which may give rise to a short-term populist political response. This would likely hurt economic growth and hence prosperity. Greenspan sees this growing inequality as primarily caused by a shortage of skilled workers, who attract large incomes due to scarcity. Accordingly, instead of populist measures, Greenspan would prefer to see a focus on better education for as many as possible, to ensure that people have sufficient skills to earn higher incomes. Secondly, increasing skilled immigration and hence the supply of skilled workers would reduce the relative incomes of such workers to a more politically palatable level, while benefiting the economy.

Clearly, Greenspan has his detractors: with the recent credit crisis, a number of commentators have suggested that he kept interest rates too low and is thus responsible for both the crisis and possible future inflation. Similarly, those who favour government intervention and spending to solve economic issues would have found him a thorn in their sides over recent decades. However, as set out in this book, recent convulsive events such as the ‘tech wreck’, 9/11, the emerging markets currency crisis, the Russian debt crisis and the demise of Long Term Capital Management, which all occurred and were successfully ‘absorbed’ by the global economy during Greenspan’s long reign, suggest that he was probably doing something right.

This autobiography is one for economists, followers of markets and anyone who recognises the importance of economics to politics and world events.

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