If Kevin Rudd’s first few contributions as leader of the federal parliamentary Labor Party are any guide, then the next election may prove to be about more than an untestable assertion over interest rates and the question of who should bear the cost of private education. He has declared that ‘Australia has reached a fork in the road’ and argued that the 2007 election may set the tone for the next generation of Australian politics. Of course, party leaders see every election as a turning point, but if Rudd is right, then it is timely to look at the nature of the last federal campaign to see what it can tell us about how the next one may be played out.

As with each of the last four federal elections, the 2004 campaign and results are the subject of a dedicated study. Mortgage Nation brings together an assessment of all aspects of the election, by thirty-two contributors. The format largely follows those in previous studies in this series. The coverage of the 2004 election deals in turn with the broad themes of the campaign, more detailed studies of each state and territory, an account of the ‘social constituencies’ and an analysis of the results. All this might be thought to be standard fare. However, what all the volumes in this series add is contributions by key party strategists. In Part II of Mortgage Nation, the reader is given the ‘insider’ view from Brian Loughnane (federal director of the Liberal Party) and Tim Gartrell (national secretary of the ALP). These, together with contributions from the Democrats and the Greens, add a perspective to the battle that could never be found in more objective academic studies. Whilst it is true that each of these chapters has more than a small measure of self-serving justification, equally they are useful in settling some of the broader disputes.

For example, several contributors argue that it was the government’s perceived capacity to deliver consistently lower interest rates that resonated with mortgagees in crucial marginal seats. As Malcolm Mackerras says in his analysis of the results, there was a greater swing to the coalition in the seventy-five ‘most mortgaged seats’ than there was in the seventy-five ‘least mortgaged’ ones. Yet in their detailed assessment of the data derived from the Australian Electoral Study (a poll of 1769 randomly selected voters), Clive Bean and Ian McAllister conclude that the election was ‘not an election about interest rates’. Rather, they argue, it was decided more by concern over terrorism and the perennial electoral issues of health and education.

In this context, it is interesting to read Brian Loughnane stressing the broader ‘strength of the Government’s credentials in economic management’ in his list of deciding factors, rather than a narrow focus on interest rates. For his part, Gartrell suggests that ALP internal polling had identified interest rates as a decisive issue and, critically, had identified it as one that Labor could not win. Perhaps the most useful contribution to this argument comes from Rodney Cavalier in the final chapter where he assesses what the defeat means for Labor. In a powerful analysis of the failings of the ALP’s organisation and policy development, he points out that scares about interest rates will have no effect unless voters ‘are inclined to believe’, and that the ALP did not spend sufficient time gaining an understanding of the mood of the electorate, and why and how record personal debt levels shaped voter reactions.

Other sections of the book allow the reader to explore many of the related, more specific campaign themes. Among other issues, there is commentary on the media coverage, and chapters on advertising (Sally Young) and new media (Peter Chen) give a good account of the way that the ‘traditional’ media coverage is changing. Similarly, studies of the changing influence of religion in Australian political debates (Haydon Manning and John Warhurst) and the consequences of the growth of support for independents (Jennifer Curtin and Brian Costar) trace some of the evolving characteristics of modern Australian electoral politics. These themes, with several others, are well woven and the regular cross-referencing to parallel discussions in different chapters shows that each writer is sensitive to the focus of the others. Notwithstanding the fact that several writers draw very different conclusions, this collection works well, and a coherence of focus that suggests a clear editorial hand. Inevitably, it will become the standard reference for any account of the voters’ verdict on Mark Latham’s tumultuous year in the face of the Howard ascendancy.

What are the lessons for 2007 that emerge from a study of the 2004 election? It should be no surprise that most of them revolve around questions of leadership. At the top of the Liberals’ explanation of their success, Loughnane lists ‘the Prime Minister’s record of leadership’ and argues that Latham’s leadership was a major reason for Labor’s defeat. After claiming that Latham delivered a better result than party research indicated was possible under Simon Crean, Gartrell acknowledges that ‘Latham was inexperienced and needed more time’. This is a telling concession.

Just as Latham did, Rudd will face an election campaign in his first year as leader, and he will contest it against John Howard, who has all the benefits of incumbency, experience and a strong party machine behind him. If the ALP is to mount a serious challenge to the electoral dominance of the coalition in 2007, then it might be useful for Rudd to read the last chapter of this book. Cavalier points out that the path to recovery after the electoral disasters of the mid 1970s was built around a cohort of able MPs. Among them was ‘a very young, bloodthirsty Paul Keating’. Whether or not Rudd can succeed may depend upon his hunger and his capacity to learn from the lessons of Latham’s failure. If he can reinvigorate the passion of the Australian electorate, then he might be in with a chance. It may just be that it’s time, again.